我們如何才能停止敘利亞動亂? (上)

How can the war in Syria be stopped?

By Nick Payton Walsh 來源:CNN Middle East,September 15th, 2015

  在2011年3月18號，位於敘利亞大馬士革 (城市名) 的示威運動上，傾向支持敘利亞總統 Bashar al-Assad(阿薩德) 抗議者舉著他以及他已逝父親 Hafez al-Assad的照片。 阿薩德在2000年時由他已逝父親的手裡接管長達三十年掌政，隨後在2011年三月，反對政權的浪聲擴大成現在的敘利亞內戰。據聯合國統計現在已經超過220,000死於這場戰爭。


  Beirut (CNN) We are 1,645 days into the Syrian conflict. Half the country's people are on the move, and more than 200,000 have died. ISIS -- more radical than al-Qaeda -- has seized parts of the country's north. Chemical weapons are now often used.

So what would it take to stop the war, or at least calm it enough to enable some Syrians to go home?

A full U.S. or Western invasion is not likely to happen, nor would it alleviate the problems. But none of the more obvious other options offer much hope either:

CNN新聞於貝魯特(黎巴嫩首都) -


  敘利亞內亂至今日已經持續1,645天，半數的國民逃難於各地、超過二十萬人已經死亡。 ISIS 伊斯蘭國 (其造成的傷害已超越蓋達組織) 目前佔據敘利亞北邊，而化學性的武器現在被大量
地使用在戰場。


  到底如何才能停止這場戰爭，或是起碼穩定現在的局勢，使各地的敘利亞國民能夠返回故鄉?


  就目前的情勢看來，美國或是來自於西方政權的全面進攻不太可能發生，其是否能緩和戰情也備受質疑。


以下是目前看來最有希望的解決方式:

1. Arm the Syrian opposition and remove the Assad regime with military force

  This option was toyed with by Western leaders in 2013 when they debated punitive strikes against the Assad regime for the use of chemical weapons in Ghouta, but it would be pretty ugly now.

  NATO airstrikes would probably cripple the Assad regime quickly. But what would happen to the people in government strongholds -- the capital, Damascus,and the Mediterranean coastal enclaves of Tartus and Latakia?

  It's pretty likely Syrian opposition forces would sweep in to those big population centers, where there are many Alawi and Shia loyal to the regime. And those opposition forces have radicals -- including the al-Qaeda linked Nusra Front -- in their ranks.

  At the very least, there would be a huge refugee outflow into Syria's already overcrowded neighbor, Lebanon; at worst a massacre.

1.武裝敘利亞反對份子，並且使用武力強迫阿薩德政權下台

  在2013年左右，阿薩德政權因為在Ghouda (一個位於大馬士革的區域)使用生化武器，遭到西方各國爭論是否應該做出懲罰性的進攻，而這個選項也在當時被過度的操弄而不了了之，但現在的情勢又比當時更為糟糕。


  北約的空中襲擊可能可以有效的打擊阿薩德政權，但是住在各個首都、大馬士革以及地中海海岸領地等各大軍事要塞的人將會受到一定的波及。



  就現在的情勢看來，敘利亞反對勢力將會進攻人口密集的地方，在這些地方聚集了很支持阿薩德政權多阿拉維教派 以及遜尼教派信徒。 這些反對勢力也包括了許多激進份子，例如說與努斯拉陣線關係密切的蓋達組織成員。

  這個選項最起碼造成的影響會是敘利亞的難民，湧向鄰國黎巴嫩 ；若是情勢惡化非常嚴重甚至可能造成大型屠殺。

家人在位於Aleppo(敘利亞城市)的野戰醫院前哀悼親戚的死亡

俄國下令禁止販售更多進口食品

Russia bans more foreign foods

By Ivana Kottasova 來源:CNN財經版 August 13th, 2015

*影片中後期出現的"costa coffee"，來自英國連鎖咖啡廳也在禁運危機名單內，非常諷刺

Russia, which has been destroying brie and other banned Western foods, may have to rev up the bulldozers again to keep pace with a growing list of prohibited imports.

俄國在之前銷毀布里起司以及其他遭到禁止的西方食材，現在有可能因為不斷增加的禁品名單而變本加厲

On Thursday, Moscow added more items to the list of banned food and agriculture products from the five counties that support Western sanctions on Russia over its involvement in the crisis in Ukraine: Albania, Montenegro, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Ukraine.

The embargoed products include meat, fish, milk and dairy products, fresh fruit and vegetables and other raw produce.

"Everyone who applies sanctions against us must face the appropriate responses, food embargo," Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich told reporters in Moscow.

Although the five countries are all small European economies, the ban could hurt. For example, around 10% of Icelandic seafood is exported to Russia, and Russia was Albania's third biggest trading partner, after U.S. and China in 2014.

這個星期四，莫斯科增加了對於五個國家的禁運農產品以及食品。這些國家支持日前因為烏克蘭危機，造成西方政權不滿而由美國帶領的西方政權制裁  ，這些國家分別是 : 阿爾巴尼亞、蒙特內哥羅、冰島、列支敦斯頓以及烏克蘭。

這些禁運品包括紅肉、魚、乳製品、牛奶、水果、蔬菜以及其他生鮮食品。

"任何對於我們做出制裁的國家將會面對他們應得的回應 : 食品禁運令" 俄國國家副總理Arkady Dvorkovich在莫斯科對記者說到。

雖然五個國家都是位於歐洲的小型經濟體，但是這樣的食品禁售可以造成程度上的傷害。舉例來說，10%左右的冰島海產都是對俄國出口以及俄國本身為阿爾巴尼亞第三大貿易夥伴，僅次於美國以及中國。

Moscow banned most food imports from the U.S., European Union, Canada, Australia, and other countries last year, in retaliation for the Western sanctions.

In recent weeks, Russian officials have used bulldozers and other methods to destroy illegally imported food.

莫斯科為了對於西方政權制裁做出報復，去年禁止了大多數來自於美國、歐盟、加拿大、澳洲以及其他某些國家的食品。

在近幾個禮拜，俄國官方在媒體面前使用推土機以及其他方式銷毀了非法的進口商品。

延伸閱讀 : 為什麼在歐洲牛奶比水還便宜?

為什麼在歐洲牛奶比水還便宜?

Why milk is cheaper than water in Europe?

 By Ivana Kottasova  來源:CNN財經版  September 8, 2015

為什麼在歐洲牛奶比水還便宜?

Russia has banned imports, Chinese demand is weakening and limits on production have been removed. The result: a huge glut of milk.
俄羅斯禁止舶來品，加上中國需求量減弱以及對於取消生產量的限制
結果:一大噗的牛奶

 SEP. 21, 2015

There is so much sloshing around the European Union that milk is often cheaper than bottled water. A liter bottle of water costs around $1.50 in the U.K.; a liter of milk $1.

In France, milk is also around $1 per liter, similar to the price of mineral water. And in German discount supermarkets such as Lidl and Aldi, a liter of milk can be as cheap as 55 cents, while a liter bottle of water costs around 72 cents.

在歐盟裡有很多的不穩定因子，造成牛奶常常比瓶裝水還便宜。在英國一公升的水大約需花費$1.50元；而同時一公升的牛奶只要$1

在法國，牛奶的價錢也大約是一公升$1，價錢相當於礦泉水。 而在德國的廉價超級市場例如Lidl以及Aldi，一公升的牛奶可以便宜到55分錢，而同時一樣大小的瓶裝水大約需花費72分錢。  (*作者使用美元)

The slump is a disaster for dairy farmers. Thousands protested in Brussels Monday, blocking streets with their tractors, and showering police with hay and eggs.

While the price of milk in shops has fallen by around 5% this year, wholesale milk prices have collapsed by about 20% to around 37 cents.

That's forcing many farmers to sell their milk for less than it costs them to produce it.

這樣的價格暴跌對於酪農來說是一場災難。上千的酪農於星期一在布魯塞爾抗議，用拖曳機阻擋街道，用乾草以及雞蛋為武器對警方示威。

今年以來牛奶的零售價已經降低5%上下；批發的牛奶則驟降了20%，到達一公升約37分錢。

這樣的價格慘跌逼迫許多農民用比生產牛奶所需的成本更低廉的價錢賣出。

The EU said Monday it will provide farmers with 500 million euros ($555 million) in emergency support to help them cope with the plummeting prices.

Europe's dairy farmers were already reeling from the food embargo imposed by Moscow last year in retaliation for Western sanctions over Ukraine.

Russia was one of the EU's biggest markets for dairy products, accounting for 32% of cheese exports and 24% of butter exports.

歐盟在星期一表示會提供農民5億歐元幫助他們應對一落千丈的價格。

在歐洲的酪農已經被莫斯科去年因為烏克蘭的事件對於西方的制裁，所強制的報復禁運令搞得人仰馬翻。

俄羅斯是歐盟中最大的乳製品市場之一，佔了32%的起司出口以及24%的奶油出口

A slowdown in demand from China, the world's biggest milk importer, is also hurting the dairy industry. China is a big buyer of powdered milk.

Europe's farmers are now calling for the reintroduction of production quotas to try to balance the market. The quotas were abolished earlier this year, leaving farmers free to produce as much as they like for the first time in 30 years.

The deregulation led to more oversupply, piling even more pressure on prices.

"Unless production is reduced, the market will carry on deteriorating at a pace," said Romuald Schaber, president of the European Milk Board, which represents dairy farmers.

中國-世界上最大的牛奶進口國，也是最大的奶粉買家，近來的需求量減緩也加重打擊了乳製品工業。

歐洲的農民現在呼籲對於生產量重新限制，試圖平衡現在的市場。在今年初，生產量限額的取消在三十年來第一次讓農民自由的生產無限量的產品。

這樣的毫無規範造成過剩的產量，對價錢的穩定造成了更大的壓力。

"除非生產量減少，不然市場會繼續以一定的速度惡化"  歐洲牛奶協會總理Romuald Schaber代表酪農說道。